Jam with that?

Just 'cuz I like to be on the record with these things, I'm going to lay it out.

I'm going with the conventional wisdom here. Nobody - NOBODY - has ever won as a write in candidate in Alaska. If Wally Hickel (probably the state's most well-known and popular politician) couldn't do it, I just don't see how Lisa Murkowski could. Insofar as they are reliable (and perhaps we should ask Ms. Lisa about that), the polls show her and Joe ("I am not a loony") Miller quite close, and there will be at least three effects pushing downward on Ms. Lisa's numbers: (1) the higher barrier to voting (some people will just decide it's not worth the trouble to fill in AND write in); (2) mistakes leading to rejected ballots (this will be a big deal, and we can be certain Miller will be very aggressive about them), and; (3) Republican brand loyalty ("I wish I could vote my conscience, but I must vote as the Party requires!").

In short - I think Lisa is toast, and is sharing her toastiness with Scott McAdams.